College Monte Carlo

Research

Data-driven research on US undergraduate admissions — matching theory, institutional data, behavioral models, and empirical analysis. The work underneath every simulated admission cycle.

37 documents · 8 sections
Datasets
High Schools 307 high schools Composite ratings, SAT ranges, GPA, enrollment, Ivy+ placement, and common hooks across the full school dataset. View dataset → Colleges 300 colleges Selectivity ratings, admit rates, SAT/GPA, yield, and testing policy for every college in the research set. View dataset →
05 documents

Research Overview

High-level syntheses and key findings across all research.

US College Admissions: A Decade-by-Decade History→Hidden Rules of Elite AdmissionsElite college admissions operate on a fundamentally different set of rules than the meritocratic process most families imagine. Data from the SFFA v.13 min→Competitive Landscape: Admissions Tools & Simulators→Naviance, Kickstart & Admissions Tool Deep Dive→ABM Literature Analysis: Reardon 2016, Assayed 2023–2025 & Context→
06 documents

Colleges & Admissions Data

Admissions stats, yield management, and what really happens inside admissions offices.

HYPSM Common Data Set StatsComprehensive admissions data for Harvard, Yale, Princeton, Stanford, and MIT compiled from Common Data Sets (2023-24, 2024-25) and official institutional…8 min→CommonApp & NACAC Admissions DataCommonApp publishes annual "End-of-Season Reports" tracking first-year application trends across all ~1,100 member institutions.7 min→Top 20–50 College CDS DataUCLA: Does not use SAT/ACT in admissions (UC system test-free policy). No SAT percentiles reported in CDS.6 min→College Statistics Reference→Enrollment Management: How Colleges Hit Yield TargetsIf admissions feels less like a meritocracy and more like a puzzle with hidden rules, you're not imagining it.9 min→How Colleges Decide Who Gets InBy the time the last acceptance letter arrives in late March, most families think the hard part is over. It isn't.7 min→
04 documents

Students & High Schools

Feeder school effects, extracurriculars, and what student profiles actually win admits.

Feeder School DataThe National Student Clearinghouse (NSC) is the most comprehensive source of student-level postsecondary enrollment data in the U.S., covering ~3,600…7 min→MIT Extracurricular ProfilesMIT evaluates applicants holistically across eight stated dimensions. Several directly involve extracurricular evaluation:6 min→MIT Race & Gender Admissions DataMIT, like other elite institutions, practiced race-conscious holistic admissions.4 min→MIT Athletic Hook AnalysisMIT operates one of the largest Division III athletic programs in the nation, fielding 33 varsity sports teams.5 min→
03 documents

Student Decision Behavior

How students choose colleges, build lists, and respond to financial aid.

Why Students Pick One College Over AnotherGetting in is only half the story. Once the acceptance letters arrive, families face a harder question: which one to choose.8 min→How Students Build Their College Lists→How Students Fall Into Application Archetypes→
02 documents

How Admissions Matching Works

Why college admissions is the way it is — explained through matching market theory.

College Admissions as a Matching MarketResearch on how US college admissions fits (or fails to fit) the stable matching framework from market design theory, drawing on the work of Gale-Shapley…15 min→K-12 School Choice MechanismsThe Boston mechanism (also called the Immediate Acceptance mechanism) operates through sequential rounds where assignments are final:13 min→
09 documents

Market Dynamics

Application inflation, cross-admit patterns, post-SFFA demographics, and financial aid.

Application Inflation Spiral→Cross-Admit Dynamics & Revealed PreferencesEvery spring, a small number of high school seniors face a problem most families would envy: they get into both Harvard and Stanford.11 min→Post-SFFA Demographic ShiftsTwo full admissions cycles after the Supreme Court's SFFA ruling, the demographic effects are larger and more persistent than initially modeled in the…13 min→Financial Aid & Yield ElasticityGetting in is only half the story. Once the acceptance letters land, families have to choose — and money quietly drives more of that choice than most…10 min→Geographic Diversity in Admissions→Demonstrated Interest by College→SAT Section Weighting: Math vs. EBRW→Waitlist Mechanics & Statistics→Summer Melt Research→
08 documents

College Consulting Industry

College consulting firms, their business models, and market dynamics.

College Consulting Industry Overview→Crimson Education: Company ResearchCrimson Education is the biggest name in private college counseling, and for many parents weighing a five- or six-figure check, it is also the most…16 min→IvyWise: Company ResearchIvyWise is the original high-end private college counseling firm, and for most families it is the most expensive option on the table.21 min→Collegewise: Company Research→College Essay Guys: Company Research→InGenius Prep & Adjacent Players→CollegeVine: Company Research→Chancing Engines Landscape: 50+ Tools Compared→
00 profiles

College Profiles

Research profiles for colleges: admissions stats, SAT/GPA ranges, demographics, and net cost data from Common Data Set filings.